Net Zero - Sustainable Fuels: Could This Be My Answer?

Let me give you a bit of background about myself. I'm firmly in the camp that recognises human-made climate change and champions the net zero goal. Yet, I'm also a big petrol head. I own a 20-year-old Porsche 911. And no, in case you're wondering, I didn't acquire it through a hefty salary, a finance deal, or a lavish company bonus. I found the cheapest one possible, then spent two years restoring it because it was knackered. The 911 had always been the car of my dreams since I was a boy, and this was the only route to owning one.

So it’s an important ‘thing’ to me. Worth more than the sum of its parts. But here lies the conundrum: how does this passion of mine align with my commitment to achieving net zero? When we first started looking into providing information to help our KnowYourCar users navigate the journey of net zero, I was pretty convinced that repairing and continuing to use my 911 would be more environmentally friendly than switching to a brand-new electric vehicle (EV).

Our research, however, swiftly debunked this idea. The environmental impact of burning fossil fuels is undeniably severe. So, despite the potential CO2 savings from not manufacturing a new car and reusing an old one, this path seemed like a dead-end.

This brought me to the concept of sustainable fuels – my last bastion of hope. And for those looking for the short version: it just might be the answer. However, it seems there may be a sting in the tail.

Understanding Sustainable or e-Fuels

Sustainable fuels, known too as e-fuels or synthetic fuels, represent a leap towards greener energy, crafted from renewable sources like solar or wind power. These innovative fuels aim to power vehicles more sustainably, moving away from the environmental toll exacted by traditional fossil fuels. The magic behind these fuels lies in their production process, which involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere or utilising organic waste, then merging it with hydrogen obtained via the electrolysis of water powered by renewable energy.

This transformative process creates liquid or gaseous fuels compatible with current internal combustion engines. Thus, sustainable fuels offer a viable route to diminish greenhouse gas emissions from transport, sidestepping the need to entirely replace existing vehicles and fuel systems. Their capacity to drastically reduce transportation's carbon footprint positions them as potentially pivotal in our journey towards a sustainable energy future.

The realm of sustainable fuels is broad and complex, but my focus here is narrowed to their application in passenger cars, particularly spotlighting two leading types:

• E-Fuels: These are produced through a method known as MTG and effectively captures existing CO2 from the air, a route Porsche is fervently exploring.  
• Bio-Fuels: Generated from organic waste materials, such as agricultural by-products, with companies like Coryton in the UK at the forefront.

Though these fuels undergo different chemical processes, both strategies effectively capture CO2 and merge it with hydrogen. The result? A fuel that can be directly poured into the petrol tanks of existing ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) cars without any modifications. While CO2 emissions still occur at the exhaust, the cycle is essentially neutral—extracting CO2 from the atmosphere only to return it, rather than adding to the atmospheric CO2 levels as fossil fuels do.

This all sounds promising, doesn't it? Could sustainable fuels be the silver bullet we've been searching for?

The Energy & Efficiency Challenges

At the heart of our transition to more sustainable fuels lies a significant challenge: the multi-stage process each fuel undergoes, with each step consuming precious energy. The critical question is whether the energy 'cost' of producing and using these new fuels can stand up against the efficiency champion, the battery electric vehicle (BEV).

Here's a comparison of the energy processes. It's simplistic, but hopefully gets the key points across.

To offer some perspective on what this means in real terms, let's look at the proportion of original energy that actually makes it to the wheels for each type:

• Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV): Manages to use 40-70% of the original energy.
• Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCEV): Sees an efficiency of 23-33%.
• Vehicle Powered by E-Fuels (ICE): Only 6-18% makes it to the wheels.

Indeed, the efficiency drop to just 6-18% for e-Fuels seems stark. Yet, it's crucial to frame this in the broader context of traditional fossil fuel efficiency, where combustion engines achieve a mere 25-30% efficiency under optimal conditions, and that’s not accounting for the massive additional energy expended in oil extraction and refining.

In comparison to BEVs, the inefficiency of e-Fuels becomes markedly evident. 

For those that want a deeper exploration of this topic, check out this great video that provides detailed analysis and sources for the calculations.

The Hurdles in Scaling Up e-Fuel Production

Porsche is at the forefront of e-Fuel research and development, and while sceptics might argue their motive is to continue the legacy of high-end combustion engine vehicles, there's another angle worth considering. Remarkably, 75% of all Porsches ever manufactured are still around, suggesting Porsche's foray into e-Fuels is partly driven by a desire to support their longstanding user base.

In a significant move, Porsche has partnered in a venture located in the Chilean desert with HIF Global (hifglobal.com), a region blessed with abundant renewable energy from wind and solar sources. Their ambitious target? To produce 150,000 barrels of e-Fuel daily by 2035—an endeavour that, if successful, would be remarkable.

The UK isn't far behind, with companies like Coryton (coryton.com) innovating sustainable fuels derived from waste biomass. Their products cater specifically to classic car enthusiasts and motorsport participants, niches that deeply value the preservation and continued operation of combustion engines.

Yet, the scale of the challenge becomes apparent when considering the US alone, where ICE vehicles consume around 8.7 million barrels of oil per day (source: eia.gov). The projected 150,000 barrels of e-Fuel production represents a drop in the ocean by comparison, underscoring a vast shortfall in meeting the demand if we were to attempt replacing all fossil fuels with e-Fuels.

Moreover, as we pivot towards a net-zero future, the demand for renewable electricity—to power everything from homes to technology—will skyrocket. Given that e-Fuel production is predicated on the availability of renewable energy, one has to question the feasibility of scaling up production to meet global demands. Why then, should we channel trillions into e-Fuel development, when a similar or lesser investment in BEV infrastructure and technology could potentially offer more immediate and impactful environmental benefits?

Availability and Cost: The Roadblocks to e-Fuel Adoption

As it stands, the journey towards widespread adoption of sustainable or e-Fuels faces significant roadblocks, primarily in terms of availability and cost. Current efforts by companies like Coryton, which is making strides by selling directly to the public, are commendable yet limited in scope with just two outlets across the UK. Meanwhile, HIF Global's operations are predominantly catering to Porsche's motorsport ventures, leaving the general public waiting in the wings for broader access.

The stark reality of e-Fuels' cost presents another hurdle. Coryton's Sustain Super 80, boasting an 80% non-fossil fuel composition, is retailing at a steep £4.75 per litre. HIF Global's product commands an even higher price at £7.60 per litre—prices that are bound to raise eyebrows. Porsche's CEO harbours optimism for a reduction to £1.50 per litre in the future, yet the path to such a significant price drop remains murky. With a production goal of 150,000 barrels by 2035, the basic principles of supply and demand suggest prices might stay on the higher side due to limited availability.

The dream of a sustainable fuel future is tantalising, yet the twin challenges of availability and cost loom large. Overcoming these will require not just technological advancements and increased production but also a concerted effort to make these fuels a viable option for the average consumer. Without addressing these critical issues, e-Fuels risk remaining a niche solution, accessible only to those willing to pay a premium for environmental sustainability.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead for E-Fuels and Sustainable Fuels

As someone deeply passionate about cars, the journey and development of e-Fuels and sustainable fuels spark a sense of optimism in me, despite the hurdles outlined above. The significant investments flowing into this sector are a testament to its potential. Yet, it's crucial to maintain a realistic perspective on what the future holds.

The prospect of widespread adoption of e-Fuel pumps at our local fuel stations seems unlikely in the near term. The simple truth is, there might not be enough e-Fuel to go around, limiting its use primarily to niches like classic car enthusiasts and motorsport activities. Nevertheless, I'm convinced that sustainable fuels will become a component of our broader transportation ecosystem at some scale.

Personally, I'm prepared to shoulder the extra cost for the joy of driving my cherished car in a more environmentally friendly manner. However, this brings us to a pivotal question for all ICE vehicle owners: How much are you willing to pay to keep driving your car? As we move forward, one thing is clear—the cost of driving an ICE vehicle, especially with sustainable fuels, is set to rise, and likely steeply.

Embracing sustainable fuels is not without its challenges, but it represents a step towards reconciling our love for driving with the urgent need for environmental stewardship. The path may be costly and fraught with limitations, but for those of us committed to both our ICE cars and the planet, it's a price worth considering.

This article was written by Dan Owen, a proud nerd and enthusiastic petrol head, tragically optimistic home mechanic and co-founder of KnowYourCar.

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